Theme 2: Social Resilience Assessment

The Mississippi Delta, marked by complex socio-ecological systems, a significant underserved population, and high poverty rates, faces considerable social vulnerability. It is among the most socially vulnerable regions in the U.S. Vulnerability to climate-related disasters compounds these challenges, including floods, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes. The focus on hazard-specific assessments, including flooding from storm surge, Mississippi River flooding, and drought, aims to provide a nuanced understanding of vulnerability.

Objectives

Analyze and understand the social vulnerability of the Mississippi Delta.
Develop an integrated vulnerability assessment framework that captures the interactions between social, ecological, and geophysical elements.
Develop a GDRI framework as a comprehensive approach that considers social-ecological system (SES) centered vulnerability and risk. Analyze climate change impacts on crop production.
Develop a multi-hazard approach to assess vulnerability and risk in the Mississippi Delta.

Methodology

This project will develop a Mississippi Delta Risk Index (MDRI), building on the experience of Social Vulnerability Indexes, and GDRI a by integrating social, ecological, and geophysical components of the Delta. Within the vulnerability aspect, the MDRI approach differentiates social and ecosystem susceptibility, as well as coping capacities. The assessment will specifically address hazard-related risks, such as Mississippi River flooding, and drought. Utilizing deltaic indicators from Sebesvari et al. (2016), categorized into social susceptibility, coping capacity, ecosystem susceptibility, and ecosystem robustness, the index will be calculated using data from diverse sources including the American Community Survey, United States Geological Survey, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and other federal and local agencies. Social indicators are generally available at the block group or census tract level, while ecosystem indicators vary in resolution, requiring appropriate data aggregation.

Evaluation

The project's success will be measured by its ability to generate a high-resolution risk index model designed specifically for the Delta. In addition to technical accomplishments, the model is evaluated based on its practical utility. In the Delta, this is particularly important when addressing the needs of underserved communities. Metrics for measuring performance will include analyzing the index's precision in categorizing individual hazards, as well as ensuring that the values assigned to the index are accurate. In addition to testing the model's technical robustness, this will also make sure it is effective at addressing the unique challenges communities in the delta region face.